research
Working Papers
- WPThe Effect of Real-World Events on Political Attitudes and Preference Intensity: Evidence from Mass ShootingsBaxter-King, Ryan
Since the earliest studies of public opinion, scholars have highlighted the difficulty in persuading people to change their minds. Nevertheless, decades of research suggest that real-world events may play a unique role in shaping public opinion. Studies of terrorist attacks, war casualties, wildfires, and other policy-relevant events underscore the impact of these events on people in close geographic and temporal proximity. In contemporary U.S. politics, mass shootings constitute a unique opportunity to study the effects of recurring real-world events on preferences. Previous studies of mass shootings leverage increasing availability of survey data to explore how this type of event shapes preferences for gun control, but arrive at divergent conclusions over whether or how these events affect support for restrictive gun policies. In this paper, I combine nearly 500,000 interviews conducted between July 2019 and January 2021 with the locations of 10 mass shootings to estimate whether mass shootings affect political attitudes and the intensity of those attitudes. By examining subsets of these events through two causally credible research designs, I am able to estimate very small effects on public opinion. My findings suggest that mass shootings have no appreciable effects on the gun policy attitudes of people living in close geographic proximity; nor do mass shootings affect the policy preferences of people around the country, on average. Similarly shootings do not usually change the intensity of peoples’ preferences on gun policies among those in proximity to the incidents or elsewhere. The most egregious mass shootings, however, appear to result in nationwide increases in the perceived importance of gun control policies in the days after the incidents. Unlike terrorist attacks, war deaths, and wildfires, gun violence does not seem to change Americans’ policy attitudes, no matter how close or far away they are from the incidents.
- WPCountry Over Party: When Social Identity Strengthens Democratic AccountabilityBaxter-King, Ryan, Hamel, Brian, and Harman, Moriah
Do social identities necessarily undermine democratic accountability? We argue that it depends on the identity’s structure: its object of loyalty, the outcomes that define group success, and the political actions available to express group loyalty. Partisan identity, for instance, ties citizens’ sense of self to a political team whose goal is winning and holding office. When a co-partisan incumbent performs poorly, sanctioning that incumbent weakens the party and empowers its opponents. By contrast, place-based identities – attachments to a nation, state, or city – bind citizens to political communities whose success is measured by their collective welfare. Sanctioning a poorly performing incumbent can therefore be understood as advancing the group rather than betraying it. Using American National Election Studies data, we show that partisan identity weakens sociotropic economic voting, while American national identity strengthens it. Our paper challenges the view that identity-based reasoning and accountability are inherently opposed.
- WPFollowing Which Leader? Endorsements by Public Officials Affect Support for COVID-19 RestrictionsBaxter-King, Ryan, and Holliday, Derek
Do voters listen to state and local officials when deciding which public policies to support? Previous literature suggests that voters’ policy preferences are driven by affective partisan attachments rather than substantive policy considerations. Even in the case of COVID-19, public opinion quickly diverged along party lines despite the pandemic’s clear implications for voters’ health. However, using a conjoint design that randomized both the endorser of a set of COVID-19 restrictions and the policies themselves, we demonstrate that public officials can influence voters’ preferences. Specifically, policy sets endorsed by either the state governor or county public health directors are more likely to be chosen than those endorsed by town mayor or county sheriff. We find the strength of these endorser effects are moderated by the confidence respondents have in their public officials and the level of responsibility attributed to those officials. Our results indicate a willingness of respondents to update their policy preferences based on signals from trusted, responsible public officials.
- WPProximate Events and Political Socialization: Evidence from Mass ShootingsBaxter-King, Ryan
Do salient events affect the political attitudes of young people in close geographic proximity? In this study, I examine whether mass shootings affect the political attitudes of young adults in the affected communities. Using two decades of surveys of students entering college, I estimate whether mass shootings affect support for gun control among students who grew up near the shooting, and find that these events cause an increase in support for restrictive gun policies. These findings suggest that proximate events may exert more influence over the political attitudes of younger individuals, whose political attitudes are in the process of forming, than over the attitudes of the general public.
- WPDoes the Spotlight Last? Policy Coverage in Local Newspapers After Mass ShootingsBaxter-King, Ryan
Do salient events increase news coverage of related policy domains? This paper examines whether mass shootings increase coverage of gun policy, not just the shooting itself, in local newspapers. Drawing on 75,000+ articles from 120+ local newspapers, I find that shootings often increase policy coverage in the months after the shootings, while shooting coverage often returns to baseline within weeks.
- WPDoes Information About the Health Effects of Anti-Transgender Laws Affect Political Attitudes?Baxter-King, Ryan
Does information about how public policy negatively affects a stigmatized minority group affect attitudes of the majority group? In the past few years, state governments across the United States have passed legislation restricting the ability of transgender Americans to access healthcare, play on sports teams, and use the bathroom that matches their gender identity. However, recent evidence suggests that these policies negatively affect the health of transgender and gender-nonconforming (TGNB) individuals, specifically TGNB young people. In this study, we investigate whether providing information about the number of anti-transgender laws recently passed in a state as well as scientific evidence about the negative health effects of these laws affects a evaluations of the group, perceptions of discrimination, or support for related public policies. Additionally, we assess whether attributing responsibility for these policies to the state government affects evaluations of elected officials. Finally, we examine whether this information activates attitudes related to gender or influences trust in scientists. In this draft, we present preliminary findings from a pilot study conducted in April 2026.
Published Articles
2026
- PNASLocal partisan context and mental healthBaxter-King, Ryan, Brown, Jacob R., Enos, Ryan D., Naeim, Arash, and Vavreck, LynnProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2026
We find that, relative to Republicans residing in more Republican neighborhoods, Republicans in neighborhoods with a higher concentration of Democratic residents report higher levels of anxiety, depression, and loneliness. While Democrats in general report worse mental health than Republicans, Democrats show no sensitivity to partisan context. Using a large-scale national survey and fine-grained data on residential political context, we establish that these patterns persist even when examining partisans who live in the same Zip Codes, and while controlling for other individual and geographic features. The correlation is strongest for the most strongly partisan individuals, suggesting that politics is a significant factor in the relationship. For Republicans, the size of the relationship between partisan context and mental health is comparable to or larger than the correlation between mental health reports and other contextual features of residential areas, such as neighborhood poverty or the way racial minorities respond to changes in the racial or ethnic composition of local geography.
- Prev. Sci.Gun-Related Beliefs as Predictors of Gun Policy Support: Findings from the Nationally Representative GRIP SurveyWard, Julie A., Baxter-King, Ryan, Smith, Phillip N., and Mehari, Krista R.Prevention Science 2026
Partisan affiliations and other demographic characteristics inadequately explain support for gun policy and provide vague public health messaging guidance. Gun-related beliefs may be more malleable and meaningful determinants of policy support for gun violence prevention. Using a nationally representative, community-engaged, mixed methods design, we examined predictive associations between gun-related beliefs and public support for six gun policies (i.e., universal background checks, waiting periods, minimum purchasing age, violent offender prohibitions, concealed carry permits, and extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs)). Gun-related beliefs were more strongly associated with policy support than political affiliation. Strength of agreement with “no one should own AR-15 style semiautomatic rifles” was positively associated with support for all six policies. Beliefs about gun policies as violence prevention were also highly salient, predicting support for five policies, with disagreement or agreement both predicting higher probability of support for universal background checks, violent offender prohibitions, and ERPOs than neutral beliefs. Beliefs that “guns are tools” were generally unassociated with policy views. Findings suggest potential for gun violence prevention messages that combine values-based language with salient themes to build support for preventive policies across political and demographic lines.
2025
- PNAS NexusEndorsements vs. information: Experimental evidence of backlash and parallel persuasion during the COVID-19 public health crisisBaxter-King, Ryan, Coppock, Alexander, Straus, Graham, and Vavreck, LynnPNAS Nexus 2025
Governments try to promote prosocial behaviors like gun safety, environmental protection, opioid awareness, and during COVID-19 pandemic, behaviors like social distancing, masking, and vaccination. Democratic governments generally cannot force these behaviors on citizens; instead, they must persuade. Persuasive appeals mainly fall into three categories: endorsements (cues from leaders, experts, or celebrities), guidance and mandates (policies or practices issued by government), and information (the provision of facts and arguments about benefits). Using data from 10 experiments with 85,191 survey respondents conducted over a 2-year period during the COVID-19 pandemic, we assess the effectiveness of these three types of persuasive messages. We find that endorsements are variously polarizing depending on subjects’ partisan orientation toward the endorser, counterproductive in general, or wholly ineffective. We find that guidance and information treatments—when they are effective at all—move people “in parallel,” i.e. in the direction of information by similar amounts regardless of party affiliation.
2024
- MDMPerceptions of COVID-19 Risk: How Did People Adapt to the Novel Risk?Sepucha, Karen, Rudkin, Aaron, Baxter-King, Ryan, Stanton, Annette L, Wenger, Neil, Vavreck, Lynn, and Naeim, ArashMedical Decision Making 2024
Background There is limited understanding of how risk perceptions changed as the US population gained experience with COVID-19. The objectives were to examine risk perceptions and determine the factors associated with risk perceptions and how these changed over the first 18 mo of the pandemic.
Methods Seven cross-sectional online surveys were fielded between May 2020 and October 2021. The study included a population-weighted sample of 138,303 US adults drawn from a market research platform, with an average 68% cooperation rate. Respondents’ risk perception of developing COVID in the next 30 days was assessed at each time point. We examined relationships between 30-day risk perceptions and various factors (including sociodemographic features, health, COVID-19 experience, political affiliation, and psychological variables).
Results COVID risk perceptions were stable across the 2020 surveys and showed a significant decrease in the 2021 surveys. Several factors, including older age, worse health, high COVID worry, in-person employment type, higher income, Democratic political party affiliation (the relatively more liberal party in the United States), low tolerance of uncertainty, and high anxiety were strongly associated with higher 30-d risk perceptions in 2020. One notable change occurred in 2021, in that younger adults (aged 18–29 y) had significantly higher 30-d risk perceptions than older adults did (aged 65 y and older) after vaccination. Initial differences in perception by political party attenuated over time. Higher 30-d risk perceptions were significantly associated with engaging in preventive behaviors.
Limitations Cross-sectional samples, risk perception item focused on incidence not severity.
Conclusions COVID risk perceptions decreased over time. Understanding the longitudinal pattern of risk perceptions and the factors associated with 30-d risk perceptions over time provides valuable insights to guide public health communication campaigns.
2023
- VaccineParental intentions to vaccinate children against COVID-19: Findings from a U.S. National SurveyGuerin, Rebecca J, Naeim, Arash, Baxter-King, Ryan, Okun, Andrea H, Holliday, Derek, and Vavreck, LynnVaccine 2023
We examined parents’ COVID-19 vaccination intentions for their children, reasons for not vaccinating, and the potential impact of a school/daycare vaccination requirement or pediatrician’s recommendation on vaccination intentions. Two online surveys were conducted in June–July and September–October 2021, before pediatric COVID-19 vaccines were authorized for emergency use in children age < 12 years, with an internet-based, non-probability sample of U.S. adults. Respondents with children (age < 18 years) in the household were asked about their intention (likelihood) of vaccinating these children against COVID-19. Weighted Chi-square tests using a Rao-Scott correction were performed. Vaccinated (45.7 %) versus unvaccinated (6.9 %) parents were almost seven times more likely to have vaccinated their 12–17-year-old children against COVID-19. Approximately 58.4 % of respondents with unvaccinated children ages 2–11 years and 42.4 % of those with children < 2 years said they are “very” or “extremely likely” to vaccinate these children against COVID-19. Female parents were significantly more likely (p < .01 to p < .001) to express lower levels of COVID-19 vaccine intentions. Across all age groups of children unvaccinated against COVID-19, parental vaccine intentions increased with increased household income and education levels. COVID-19 vaccine side effects and safety concerns were primary reasons for not vaccinating children. Strategies including school vaccination requirements and recommendations from pediatricians were shown to increase parental COVID-19 vaccination intentions for some. More research is needed on factors that increase/hinder COVID-19 pediatric vaccine uptake.
2022
- JGIMThe Impact of COVID-19 on Routine Medical Care and Cancer ScreeningWenger, Neil S, Stanton, Annette L, Baxter-King, Ryan, Sepucha, Karen, Vavreck, Lynn, and Naeim, ArashJournal of General Internal Medicine 2022
Background COVID-19 restrictions and fear dramatically changed the use of medical care. Understanding the magnitude of cancelled and postponed appointments and associated factors can help identify approaches to mitigate unmet need.
Objective To determine the proportion of medical visits cancelled or postponed and for whom. We hypothesized that adults with serious medical conditions and those with higher anxiety, depressive symptoms, and avoidance-oriented coping would have more cancellations/postponements.
Design Four nationally representative cross-sectional surveys conducted online in May, July, October, and December 2020.
Participants 59,747 US adults who completed 15-min online surveys. 69% cooperation rate.
Measures Physical and mental health visits and cancer screening cancelled or postponed over prior 2 months. Plan to cancel or postpone visits over the next 2 months. Relationship with demographics, medical conditions, local COVID-19 death rate, anxiety, depressive symptoms, coping, intolerance of uncertainty, and perceived COVID-19 risk.
Key Results Of the 58% (N = 34,868) with a medical appointment during the 2 months before the survey, 64% had an appointment cancelled or postponed in May, decreasing to 37% in December. Of the 41% of respondents with scheduled cancer screening, 20% cancelled/postponed, which was stable May to December. People with more medical conditions were more likely to cancel or postpone medical visits (OR 1.19 per condition, 95% CI 1.16, 1.22) and cancer screening (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.15, 1.24). Race, ethnicity, and income had weak associations with cancelled/postponed visits, local death rate was unrelated, but anxiety and depressive symptoms were strongly related to cancellations, and this grew between May and December.
Conclusions Cancelled medical care and cancer screening were more common among persons with medical conditions, anxiety and depression, even after accounting for COVID-19 deaths. Outreach and support to ensure that patients are not avoiding needed care due to anxiety, depression and inaccurate perceptions of risk will be important. - JMIR MHDepressive Symptoms and Anxiety During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Large, Longitudinal, Cross-sectional SurveyMacDonald, James J, Baxter-King, Ryan, Vavreck, Lynn, Naeim, Arash, Wenger, Neil, Sepucha, Karen, and Stanton, Annette LJMIR Mental Health 2022
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the mental health of millions across the globe. Understanding factors associated with depressive symptoms and anxiety across 12 months of the pandemic can help identify groups at higher risk and psychological processes that can be targeted to mitigate the long-term mental health impact of the pandemic.
Objective: This study aims to determine sociodemographic features, COVID-19-specific factors, and general psychological variables associated with depressive symptoms and anxiety over 12 months of the pandemic.
Methods: Nationwide, cross-sectional electronic surveys were implemented in May (n=14,636), July (n=14,936), October (n=14,946), and December (n=15,265) 2020 and March/April 2021 (n=14,557) in the United States. Survey results were weighted to be representative of the US population. The samples were drawn from a market research platform, with a 69% cooperation rate. Surveys assessed depressive symptoms in the past 2 weeks and anxiety in the past week, as well as sociodemographic features; COVID-19 restriction stress, worry, perceived risk, coping strategies, and exposure; intolerance of uncertainty; and loneliness.
Results: Across 12 months, an average of 24% of respondents reported moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms and 32% reported moderate-to-severe anxiety. Of the sociodemographic variables, age was most consistently associated with depressive symptoms and anxiety, with younger adults more likely to report higher levels of those outcomes. Intolerance of uncertainty and loneliness were consistently and strongly associated with the outcomes. Of the COVID-19-specific variables, stress from COVID-19 restrictions, worry about COVID-19, coping behaviors, and having COVID-19 were associated with a higher likelihood of depressive symptoms and anxiety.
Conclusions: Depressive symptoms and anxiety were high in younger adults, adults who reported restriction stress or worry about COVID-19 or who had had COVID-19, and those with intolerance of uncertainty and loneliness. Symptom monitoring as well as early and accessible intervention are recommended. - PNASHow local partisan context conditions prosocial behaviors: Mask wearing during COVID-19Baxter-King, Ryan, Brown, Jacob R., Enos, Ryan D., Naeim, Arash, and Vavreck, LynnProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2022
Does local partisan context influence the adoption of prosocial behavior? Using a nationwide survey of 60,000 adults and geographic data on over 180 million registered voters, we investigate whether neighborhood partisan composition affects a publicly observable and politicized behavior: wearing a mask. We find that Republicans are less likely to wear masks in public as the share of Republicans in their zip codes increases. Democratic mask wearing, however, is unaffected by local partisan context. Consequently, the partisan gap in mask wearing is largest in Republican neighborhoods, and less apparent in Democratic areas. These effects are distinct from other contextual effects such as variations in neighborhood race, income, or education. In contrast, partisan context has significantly reduced influence on unobservable public health recommendations like COVID-19 vaccination and no influence on nonpoliticized behaviors like flu vaccination, suggesting that differences in mask wearing reflect the publicly observable and politicized nature of the behavior instead of underlying differences in dispositions toward medical care.
- VaccineStrategies to increase the intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19: Findings from a nationally representative survey of US adults, October 2020 to October 2021Naeim, Arash, Guerin, Rebecca J, Baxter-King, Ryan, Okun, Andrea H, Wenger, Neil, Sepucha, Karen, Stanton, Annette L, Rudkin, Aaron, Holliday, Derek, Rossell Hayes, Alexander, and Vavreck, LynnVaccine 2022
Objectives We examined COVID-19 vaccination status, intention, and hesitancy and the effects of five strategies to increase the willingness of unvaccinated adults (≥18 years) to get a COVID vaccine.
Methods Online surveys were conducted between October 1–17, 2020 (N = 14,946), December 4–16, 2020 (N = 15,229), April 8–22, 2021 (N = 14,557), June 17-July 6, 2021 (N = 30,857), and September 3-October 4, 2021 (N = 33,088) with an internet-based, non-probability opt-in sample of U.S. adults matching demographic quotas. Respondents were asked about current COVID-19 vaccination status, intention and hesitancy to get vaccinated, and reasons for vaccine hesitancy. Unvaccinated respondents were assigned to treatment groups to test the effect of five strategies (endorsements, changing social restrictions, financial incentives, vaccine requirements for certain activities, and vaccine requirements for work). Chi-square tests of independence were performed to detect differences in the response distributions.
Results Willingness to be vaccinated (defined as being vaccinated or planning to be) increased over time from 47.6 % in October 2020 to 81.1 % in October 2021. By October 2021, across most demographic groups, over 75 % of survey respondents had been or planned to be vaccinated. In terms of strategies: (1) endorsements had no positive effect, (2) relaxing the need for masks and social distancing increased Intention to Get Vaccinated (IGV) by 6.4 % (p < 0.01), (3) offering financial incentives increased the IGV between 12.3 and 18.9 % (p <.001), (4) vaccine requirements for attending sporting events or traveling increased IGV by 7.8 % and 9.1 %, respectively (p = 0.02), and vaccine requirement for work increased IGV by 35.4 %. The leading causes (not mutually exclusive) for hesitancy were concerns regarding vaccine safety (52.5 %) or side effects (51.6 %), trust in the government’s motives (41.0 %), and concerns about vaccine effectiveness (37.6 %).
Conclusions These findings suggest that multiple strategies may be effective and needed to increase COVID-19 vaccination among hesitant adults during the pandemic.
2021
- JAMA SurgeryEffect of a Predictive Model on Planned Surgical Duration Accuracy, Patient Wait Time, and Use of Presurgical Resources: A Randomized Clinical TrialStrömblad, Christopher T., Baxter-King, Ryan G., Meisami, Amirhossein, Yee, Shok-Jean, Levine, Marcia R., Ostrovsky, Aaron, Stein, Daniel, Iasonos, Alexia, Weiser, Martin R., Garcia-Aguilar, Julio, Abu-Rustum, Nadeem R., and Wilson, Roger S.JAMA Surgery 2021
Importance: Accurate surgical scheduling affects patients, clinical staff, and use of physical resources. Although numerous retrospective analyses have suggested a potential for improvement, the real-world outcome of implementing a machine learning model to predict surgical case duration appears not to have been studied. Objectives: To assess accuracy and real-world outcome from implementation of a machine learning model that predicts surgical case duration. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial was conducted on 2 surgical campuses of a cancer specialty center. Patients undergoing colorectal and gynecology surgery at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center who were scheduled more than 1 day before surgery between April 7, 2018, and June 25, 2018, were included. The randomization process included 29 strata (11 gynecological surgeons at 2 campuses and 7 colorectal surgeons at a single campus) to ensure equal chance of selection for each surgeon and each campus. Patients undergoing more than 1 surgery during the study’s timeframe were enrolled only once. Data analyses took place from July 2018 to November 2018. Interventions: Cases were assigned to machine learning-assisted surgical predictions 1 day before surgery and compared with a control group. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome measure was accurate prediction of the duration of each scheduled surgery, measured by (arithmetic) mean (SD) error and mean absolute error. Effects on patients and systems were measured by start time delay of following cases, the time between cases, and the time patients spent in presurgical area. Results: A total of 683 patients were included (mean [SD] age, 55.8 [13.8] years; 566 women [82.9%]); 72 were excluded. Of the 683 patients included, those assigned to the machine learning algorithm had significantly lower mean (SD) absolute error (control group, 59.3 [72] minutes; intervention group, 49.5 [66] minutes; difference, -9.8 minutes; P = .03) compared with the control group. Mean start-time delay for following cases (patient wait time in a presurgical area), dropped significantly: 62.4 minutes (from 70.2 minutes to 7.8 minutes) and 16.7 minutes (from 36.9 minutes to 20.2 minutes) for patients receiving colorectal and gynecology surgery, respectively. The overall mean (SD) reduction of wait time was 33.1 minutes per patient (from 49.4 minutes to 16.3 minutes per patient). Improved accuracy did not adversely inflate time between cases (surgeon wait time). There was marginal improvement (1.5 minutes, from a mean of 70.6 to 69.1 minutes) in time between the end of cases and start of to-follow cases using the predictive model, compared with the control group. Patients spent a mean of 25.2 fewer minutes in the facility before surgery (173.3 minutes vs 148.1 minutes), indicating a potential benefit vis-à-vis available resources for other patients before and after surgery. Conclusions and Relevance: Implementing machine learning-generated predictions for surgical case durations may improve case duration accuracy, presurgical resource use, and patient wait time, without increasing surgeon wait time between cases. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03471377.
- JMIR PH & SEffects of Age, Gender, Health Status, and Political Party on COVID-19–Related Concerns and Prevention Behaviors: Results of a Large, Longitudinal Cross-sectional SurveyNaeim, Arash, Baxter-King, Ryan, Wenger, Neil, Stanton, Annette L, Sepucha, Karen, and Vavreck, LynnJMIR Public Health and Surveillance 2021
Background: With conflicting information about COVID-19, the general public may be uncertain about how to proceed in terms of precautionary behavior and decisions about whether to return to activity.
Objective: The aim of this study is to determine the factors associated with COVID-19–related concerns, precautionary behaviors, and willingness to return to activity.
Methods: National survey data were obtained from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project, an ongoing cross-sectional weekly survey. The sample was provided by Lucid, a web-based market research platform. Three outcomes were evaluated: (1) COVID-19–related concerns, (2) precautionary behaviors, and (3) willingness to return to activity. Key independent variables included age, gender, race or ethnicity, education, household income, political party support, religion, news consumption, number of medication prescriptions, perceived COVID-19 status, and timing of peak COVID-19 infections by state.
Results: The data included 125,508 responses from web-based surveys conducted over 20 consecutive weeks during the COVID-19 pandemic (comprising approximately 6250 adults per week), between March 19 and August 5, 2020, approved by the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Institutional Review Board for analysis. A substantial number of participants were not willing to return to activity even after the restrictions were lifted. Weighted multivariate logistic regressions indicated the following groups had different outcomes (all P<.001): individuals aged ≥65 years (COVID-19–related concerns: OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.93-2.18; precautionary behaviors: OR 2.38, 95% CI 2.02-2.80; return to activity: OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.37-0.46 vs 18-40 years); men (COVID-19–related concerns: OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.70-0.75; precautionary behaviors: OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.67-0.81; return to activity: OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.88-2.12 vs women); taking ≥4 medications (COVID-19–related concerns: OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.40-1.54; precautionary behaviors: OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.20-1.555; return to activity: OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.69-0.81 vs <3 medications); Republicans (COVID-19–related concerns: OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.38-0.42; precautionary behaviors: OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.40-0.50; return to activity: OR 2.22, 95% CI 2.09-2.36 vs Democrats); and adults who reported having COVID-19 (COVID-19–related concerns: OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.39; precautionary behaviors: OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.81; return to activity: OR 3.99, 95% CI 3.48-4.58 vs those who did not).
Conclusions: Participants’ age, party affiliation, and perceived COVID-19 status were strongly associated with their COVID-19–related concerns, precautionary behaviors, and willingness to return to activity. Future studies need to develop and test targeted messaging approaches and consider political partisanship to encourage preventative behaviors and willingness to return to activities.
2020
- Sci. Adv.Fatalities from COVID-19 are reducing Americans’ support for Republicans at every level of federal officeWarshaw, Christopher, Vavreck, Lynn, and Baxter-King, RyanScience Advances 2020
Between early March and 1 August 2020, COVID-19 took the lives of more than 150,000 Americans. Here, we examine the political consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic using granular data on COVID-19 fatalities and the attitudes of the American public. We find that COVID-19 has led to substantial damage for President Trump and other Republican candidates. States and local areas with higher levels of COVID-19 fatalities are less likely to support President Trump and Republican candidates for House and Senate. Our results show that President Trump and other Republican candidates would benefit electorally from a reduction in COVID-19 fatalities. This implies that a greater emphasis on social distancing, masks, and other mitigation strategies would benefit the president and his allies.